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Timing’s the thing

FRONTLINE: Ninez Cacho-Olivares

http://tribune.net.ph/commentary/20070830com2.html

30 August 2007It is always the timing that arouses one’s strong suspicion of a “sudden” development surfacing during troubled times for the Gloria government.

There are at least three events that are converging, all of which impact negatively on Gloria, her military and her regime.

The Mindanao war which has dealt the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), the Marines in particular, a heavy death toll that even the Army chief admitted is a cause for restiveness and demoralization among the soldiers; the revival of the “Hello Garci” wiretap issue that is set to the investigated by the Senate acting as a Committee of the Whole which will definitely impact negatively on Gloria and her claimed legitimacy; and the expected promulgation of the Sandiganbayan Special Division of detained President Joseph Estrada, who is expected to be handed a guilty verdict by the justices.

As the military chiefs have said, these three developments can easily be exploited by various groups, in their bid to oust Gloria Arrroyo, which is why talk of coup has been leaked out by the military itself, to justify the massive deployment of police and military troops at the Sandiganbayan area to disperse demonstrators when the Estrada verdict is handed down.

But the deployment of troops will have to be effected only on verdict day, or at the most, shortly after the Sandiganbayan announces the date of the promulgation.

What excuse then can the AFP and the PNP come up with to justify a large deployment of troops in Metro Manila? Trust Malacañang to think of something.

Three recent developments occurred, in rapid succession, and clearly aimed at diverting public focus: the peace panel of the Philippine government (GRP) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) announced that in a “secret” meeting, the two panels agreed to extend the life of the International Monitoring Team (IMT) of the ceasefire agreement for a full year and even “lightly” discussed the controversial ancestral domain issue, which discussions appeared to have left the MILF satisfied. This in turn can mean that, again, the GRP painted before the MILF a rosy picture of what territorial rights they can be expecting from the peace talks next month.

The problem that is the contentious issue of the MILF’s demand for its ancestral domain regime has been effectively postponed and the ancestral domain issue is not likely to raise the hackles of the AFP just yet.

Still, this IMT ceasefire extension wasn’t big enough, news-wise, to defocus public attention from the Senate’s hearings on the Vidal Doble wiretap probe, or Malacañang’s problem that is Erap and his looming conviction and how to deploy the troops much earlier than the expected promulgation.

Comes now the sudden shocker: the arrest of communist leader in exile Jose Maria Sison by the Dutch police in Utrecht on charges of two murders of Sison’s former political associates some years back, with a claim that he is a suspect in having ordered the assassination of the two, adding there is a Dutch law that makes this a crime.

After some time had elapsed following these two assassinations, the Dutch police move against Sison, and on the basis of the allegations of the murdered persons’ relatives? Come, come. The timing is much too suspect. Besides, Gloria upon hearing the news of Sison’s arrest, turned to her spy chief, Norberto Gonzales, and congratulated him. What else can be deduced from this, if not the active participation of the Arroyo government to get the Dutch government to put the squeeze on Sison and the commies?

Then, too, it was claimed by the National Democratic Front leader Luis Jalandoni that Sison was “had” by the Dutch police, as they had reportedly invited Sison to update him on the death threats he has been receiving, only to arrest him on these charges, which can hardly be proved — even by the relatives, as these murder cases have not been resolved to this day.

But the Sison arrest did edge out the Senate’s Hello Garci hearings, news-wise, along with the Estrada conviction issue, although the Sison arrest won’t hog the headlines for too long, that’s for sure.

But it does provide the excuse desperately needed by Gloria and her police-military force to deploy more and more troops in the metropolis for days on end.

Already, there was the call for a red alert and with Malacañang fortified. The excuse? Government is bracing for sympathy attacks from the commies.

What a hoary tale! Why would the commies stage an attack on Malacañang? Still, it could well be part of the evil plot of Gloria and her generals to stage a Palace coup. Get political unrest going with talks of coup arising from the Erap conviction and come up with a scenario of the commies at the doorstep of Malacañang — and then comes the announcement of emergency rule which presages a Palace coup.

That’s how Gloria and her military hatch up ways and means for their political survival.