January 15, 2003
We cannot discuss the current national situation without delving into the December 30, 2002 pronouncement of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo that she will not run for President in 2004 and the subsequent chain of political developments.
President Macapagal-Arroyo tries hard to make it appear that her decision was a great “personal sacrifice,” hoping to make political capital out of her predicament. Her so-called “Christian democrat” allies in the government have even launched a “movement” supposedly inspired by her decision.
But there’s more to the President’s declaration than meets the eye. Her decision is actually an admission of defeat and failure. Defeat, because she has realized that she would lose the 2004 presidential elections. Although an incumbent, she has ranked a dismal fourth in surveys on voters’ presidential preference. Failure, because her government has not lived up to her promises and people’s expectations. Many think she no longer deserves another term.
It must have been difficult for the President to decide against what she had been preparing for all along. But she must have seen the writing on the wall. Her popularity rating has plummeted despite her all-out media visibility campaign. She knows there will be no let up in the scrutiny of her administration as the 2004 elections approach. She must have also feared the possibility of her ouster as protest actions against her gather in strength.
Of course, we cannot discount the possibility that the President’s pronouncement is just a political gambit. With her decision, she hopes to deflect criticism and censure, while her rivals slug it out in the political arena. Once her popularity has rebounded, she can take back her previous pronouncement. Of course, she may do this at anytime, but not without severe political damage. But I doubt if she can still recover lost political ground.
The more important question for us today is, why did Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo throw in the towel even before the political fight has begun? The immediate reason is apparently the steep drop in her poll rating. It is thus worthwhile to know why in so short a time, she has become so politically isolated.
There are a lot of reasons why the Macapagal-Arroyo government has failed and lost the people’s respect and trust. One is corruption. The list of cases of corruption involving the President and her cronies is getting longer. It began with the CODE-NGO Peace Bond scam. With political connections as capital – “o laway lang” – some CODE-NGO bureaucrats (who also hold important positions in the government) managed to raise P1.4 billion in “commission” for “facilitating” the issuance and sale of government “PEACE” bonds.
This was followed by the anomalies involving the coconut levy, then the PIATCO air terminal and the Diosdado Macapagal Avenue project. Most recent and more telling is the anomaly involving the IMPSA project which led to the resignation of the justice secretary.
In all these cases of corruption, the hand of the President – or that of her husband and some close members of her political family – was much evident. Expectedly, the President and her cronies denied or kept silent on their involvement in corruption, hoping the public uproar would soon subside. But the exposé of Mark Jimenez, shady though his character may be, finally drew first blood. Although it was only the justice secretary who was tagged by Jimenez, Mike Arroyo’s hand was obvious too. Moreover, Malacañang was forced to admit that then Vice-President’s Macapagal-Arroyo’s foundation, Lualhati, did receive at least P8 million from Jimenez, already a fugitive from justice.
Macapagal-Arroyo and her clique underestimate the people’s hatred of corruption. They behave as if Estrada’s ouster on the basis of corruption charges never happened. They persist in their old corrupt ways. Fortunately for us, there are whistle-blowers even within the government. These whistle-blowers, who have felt either cheated or conscience stricken, have provided us a glimpse of large scale corruption in the current administration.
The more important reason for public disapproval of the Macapagal-Arroyo government is its failure to address, in concrete and meaningful ways, the immediate and long-term concerns of the masses. The government’s economic and social policies have made their lot even much worse.
To this day, this government has refused to raise the minimum wage of workers and employees. The President has even blatantly claimed that mandating wage increases is “anti-worker.” Her only concession in this regard has been raising the salary of PNP and AFP personnel, which she did to seek the support of the armed forces.
She has not done anything to uplift the peasantry and urban poor either. The majority of our people continue to bear the brunt of the harmful effects of policies and measures supporting the tenets of imperialist globalization. Peasants, like the vegetable growers of Cordillera, now groan under the weight of the liberalization of agricultural imports and denial of farm support. Privatization of social services, like government hospitals, has worsened the lot of our poor.
On the other hand, the administration is quick and fast in addressing the demands of the economic elite. The President recently signed into law the Special Purpose Assets Vehicle (SPAV). This is a form of subsidy to banks and other financial institutions which have incurred P300 billion in loans and non-performing assets.
By commission and omission of certain actions, this government has made the country’s economic problems indeed much worse. The magnitude of the economic crisis is manifested in the growing unemployment, budget deficit and foreign debt, as well as the worsening foreign exchange rate.
President Macapagal-Arroyo has also underestimated the Filipino people’s aspiration for peace. She has blindly taken the cue from the militarists in continuing Estrada’s all-out war policy. Just some months ago, she boasted that 95% of the population were against peace talks with the NDF. To her dismay however, recent surveys report that 70% of the public are in fact in favor of peace talks.
The President thinks political repression can be justified in its all-out war against the NDF and MILF. She has fully backed the AFP counter-insurgency plan which includes, among others, systematic attacks against suspected civilian supporters of the NPA in the rural areas as well as the leaders of militant people’s organizations in the cities and town centers.
The President also foolishly went all-out in supporting the US “war on terrorism” and allowing direct involvement of American troops in the ongoing armed conflicts in the country. She hastily approved the Mutual Logistic and Support Agreement (MLSA). She thought being blatantly pro-US not only would assure her of US support, but would also make her popular. She underestimated the Filipino people’s self-awareness as a nation.
Probably, the President has now realized that she is not indispensable to the US. Not long before her December 30 declaration, the American ambassador to the Philippines made public his critical comments on government corruption. A US intelligence post in the Philippines was reportedly responsible for the information which led to the temporary closure of the embassies of Australia, Canada and European Union in Manila. She got peeved by the refusal of the US government to honor its military aid commitment to the Philippines.
President Macapagal-Arroyo’s announcement to withdraw from the 2004 elections has intensified rivalry in the ranks of the political elite. Contenders as well as pretenders for the highest office in the land now jockey for vantage positions. Senator Edgardo Angara’s similar pronouncement not to seek the presidency has not diminished the political infighting. Factional strife will surely further intensify as the 2004 elections loom closer.
In today’s political landscape, we have a presidential aspirant (Raul Roco) who tops the polls survey but has an inconsequential political machinery. On the other hand, the ruling party, Lakas-CMD, has a formidable machinery but its presidential hopeful does not figure well in the poll surveys. One of its main pillars (Speaker Jose De Venecia) has his hands full pushing for charter change. The opposition is torn between another movie star who’s never had any political experience and a potential strongman whose main claim to fame is anchored on violations of human rights.
In this situation, the people will only have limited options to consider. The 2004 elections looks like another circus in the making.
What is in store for the Macapagal-Arroyo government for the remaining one and a half years? The President’s slogan, “reform or perish,” looks fine on paper, but I think it will not amount to anything.
Her first action since December 30 was simply to play musical chairs. No serious cabinet revamp has taken place. The reshuffle was done even before a coherent purpose and plan had been worked out. She must really be running out of reliable hands that she allowed Bayani Fernando to keep his MMDA post even as he assumes the DPWH post.
She appeared to have adopted Speaker de Venecia’s call for national unity and unity government. But her unity government is simply the refurbished council of state, consisting of certain key officials, including former presidents. She did not even mention the representation of the toiling masses.
Is the Macapagal-Arroyo government sincere and capable of carrying reforms? We need not debate on whether the President is sincere or not. If she is sincere as she claims to be, she can demonstrate it by carrying out concrete reforms.
If she is intent on instituting reforms, why not increase posthaste the minimum wage of workers and employees?
If she is intent on instituting reforms, why not undertake immediately land distribution for the landless peasants?
If she is intent on instituting reforms, why not reconsider the country’s blind adherence to the policies of globalization?
If she is intent on instituting reforms, why not scrap altogether the onerous MLSA and direct involvement of US troops in local armed conflicts? Why not withdraw her commitment to support the US plan to invade Iraq?
If she is intent on instituting reforms, why not resume without any more delay the peace negotiations between the GRP and the NDF?
Probably in one or two of these challenges, the President, may give some concessions, especially if there is a strong public clamor for these. Perhaps, she may be obliged to grant a paltry wage increase. No longer negotiating from a position of strength, she may be prevailed upon to even resume the peace negotiations with the NDF.
As for the rest of other meaningful reforms, the President is likely to oppose or to ignore them.
The January 12 editorial of Today made an interesting remark on the President’s call for reforms. It noted her decision to adopt “tariff policy signals to encourage the manufacturing sector” and “the policy to slow the program pace only to the AFTA and WTO minimums.”
However, the editorial concludes that “in the light of this sad and global economic ordeal [of globalization], President Arroyo’s pronouncement is actually too brief, too mild and rather late.”
This may be true as well for all her other promised reforms. Indeed, reforms may be too late for Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.
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